Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Boston Salmon
Ricky Turcios
44%
56%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
27
Age
Δ 2y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Salmon: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Turcios: 110 sig / 0 TD
Boston Salmon
Ricky Turcios
33
Sig strikes landed
39
71
Sig strikes attempted
83
43
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Boston Salmon
"Boom Boom"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Ricky Turcios
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24