Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manny Vazquez
Joby Sanchez
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vazquez: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Sanchez: 40 sig / 2 TD
Manny Vazquez
Joby Sanchez
39
Sig strikes landed
34
81
Sig strikes attempted
68
57
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Manny Vazquez
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Joby Sanchez
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26