Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marcin Held
Nasrat Haqparast
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 4y
22
L3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Held: 19 sig / 3 TD ·
Haqparast: 27 sig / 1 TD
Marcin Held
Nasrat Haqparast
26
Sig strikes landed
33
62
Sig strikes attempted
68
48
Total strikes landed
53
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
229s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marcin Held
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
Nasrat Haqparast
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22