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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Damian Stasiak vs Brian Kelleher

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till ·Ergo Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Damian Stasiak
Brian Kelleher
57% 43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
10-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
24-17
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Stasiak: 43 sig / 1 TD · Kelleher: 79 sig / 1 TD
Damian Stasiak
Brian Kelleher
26
Sig strikes landed
30
67
Sig strikes attempted
58
40
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
158s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
48%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Damian Stasiak

"Webster"
10-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
L1

Brian Kelleher

"Boom"
24-17
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—