Main
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jodie Esquibel
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
·Ergo Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jodie Esquibel
70%
30%
Why
64"
Reach
64"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 127 sig / 1 TD ·
Esquibel: 65 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jodie Esquibel
57
Sig strikes landed
49
157
Sig strikes attempted
113
88
Total strikes landed
72
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
186s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
Jodie Esquibel
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32