Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Devin Clark
75%
25%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
29-12-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-9
L2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Blachowicz: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Clark: 15 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Devin Clark
36
Sig strikes landed
37
80
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
97s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jan Blachowicz
29-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
W2
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—