Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Darren Till
55%
45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
36-18
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-5-1
L2
Current streak
W2
25
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Till: 24 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Darren Till
37
Sig strikes landed
45
79
Sig strikes attempted
89
42
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
62s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
25 fights · 19-6
Last 5
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
Blue corner
W2
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
19-5-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—