Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Rafael Dos Anjos
68%
32%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 10"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
32-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
33-17
W1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Magny: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 13 sig / 0 TD
Neil Magny
Rafael Dos Anjos
50
Sig strikes landed
41
109
Sig strikes attempted
95
69
Total strikes landed
63
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—