Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Henry Cejudo
Wilson Reis
52%
48%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
16-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-11
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cejudo: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Reis: 5 sig / 0 TD
Henry Cejudo
Wilson Reis
42
Sig strikes landed
35
99
Sig strikes attempted
96
58
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
7.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
70s
Control time
249s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
L1
Wilson Reis
23-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—