Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Sarah Moras vs Ashlee Evans-Smith
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sarah Moras
Ashlee Evans-Smith
46%
54%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
6-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
6-7
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Moras: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Evans-Smith: 3 sig / 0 TD
Sarah Moras
Ashlee Evans-Smith
32
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
85
47
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
152s
Control time
216s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sarah Moras
"Cheesecake"
6-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ashlee Evans-Smith
"Rebel Girl"
6-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—