Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gavin Tucker
Ricky Glenn
50%
50%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
14-3
Career record
Δ 15 pp
23-9-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tucker: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Glenn: 142 sig / 4 TD
Gavin Tucker
Ricky Glenn
53
Sig strikes landed
65
138
Sig strikes attempted
163
80
Total strikes landed
77
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
66s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gavin Tucker
"Guv'nor"
14-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ricky Glenn
"The Gladiator"
23-9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—