Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Sara McMann vs Ketlen Vieira
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Ketlen Vieira
27%
73%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
37
Age
Δ 11y
26
14-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-5
W3
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McMann: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Vieira: 17 sig / 1 TD
Sara McMann
Ketlen Vieira
30
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
88
50
Total strikes landed
70
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
224s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Sara McMann
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Ketlen Vieira
"Fenomeno"
17-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—