Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Gilbert Melendez
48%
52%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
29-24
Career record
Δ 16 pp
22-9
L2
Current streak
L3
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stephens: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Melendez: 29 sig / 0 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Gilbert Melendez
56
Sig strikes landed
50
143
Sig strikes attempted
119
66
Total strikes landed
66
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
2.30
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 8-9
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L3
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—