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Main Welterweight

Leon Edwards vs Bryan Barberena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Bryan Barberena
83% 17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
23-6
Career record
Δ 18 pp
19-12
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edwards: 23 sig / 3 TD · Barberena: 44 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Bryan Barberena
48
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
87
62
Total strikes landed
62
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
205s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Leon Edwards

"Rocky"
23-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
L UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
Blue corner
W1

Bryan Barberena

"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
L UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
W UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
L UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi