Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Henry Briones
Rani Yahya
31%
69%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
16-9-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
28-13-1
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Briones: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Yahya: 3 sig / 1 TD
Henry Briones
Rani Yahya
32
Sig strikes landed
40
75
Sig strikes attempted
87
44
Total strikes landed
62
0.0
Takedowns landed
2.5
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
6.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
15s
Control time
231s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Henry Briones
"Bure"
16-9-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L1
Rani Yahya
28-13-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—