Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Hector Sandoval
66%
34%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
19-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
15-4
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ortiz: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Sandoval: 1 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Hector Sandoval
33
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
59
56
Total strikes landed
47
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
236s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Ortiz
19-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W2
Hector Sandoval
"Kid Alex"
15-4
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—