Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Morales
Robert Sanchez
80%
20%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Morales: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 2 sig / 1 TD
Joseph Morales
Robert Sanchez
40
Sig strikes landed
34
83
Sig strikes attempted
67
60
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
Blue corner
Robert Sanchez
"Littlefury"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31