Back to UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno
Prelims2 Lightweight

Alvaro Herrera Mendoza vs Jordan Rinaldi

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno ·Arena CDMX
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
Jordan Rinaldi
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
9-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Herrera Mendoza: 2 sig / 0 TD · Rinaldi: 6 sig / 0 TD
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
Jordan Rinaldi
29
Sig strikes landed
24
65
Sig strikes attempted
54
45
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
56s
Control time
249s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
42%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alvaro Herrera Mendoza

"Chango"
9-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
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Blue corner
L1

Jordan Rinaldi

"All Day"
14-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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