Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Rashad Evans
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
31
Age
Δ 7y
38
33-19-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-9-1
L1
Current streak
L3
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alvey: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Evans: 17 sig / 2 TD
Sam Alvey
Rashad Evans
42
Sig strikes landed
26
91
Sig strikes attempted
67
53
Total strikes landed
40
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
14s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
L3
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—