Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Alistair Overeem
24%
76%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
48-19
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Werdum: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Overeem: 21 sig / 0 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Alistair Overeem
50
Sig strikes landed
44
86
Sig strikes attempted
82
72
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—