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Prelims1 Welterweight

James Krause vs Tom Gallicchio

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
James Krause
Tom Gallicchio
77% 23%
Why
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
W2
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Krause: 106 sig / 0 TD · Gallicchio: 53 sig / 1 TD
James Krause
Tom Gallicchio
50
Sig strikes landed
38
113
Sig strikes attempted
84
70
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

James Krause

"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
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L UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
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L UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner

Tom Gallicchio

"Da Tank"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31