Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ed Herman vs CB Dollaway
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
CB Dollaway
59%
41%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
27-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L3
10
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herman: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Dollaway: 54 sig / 6 TD
Ed Herman
CB Dollaway
32
Sig strikes landed
32
61
Sig strikes attempted
72
44
Total strikes landed
46
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
56s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
L3
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
17-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—