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Main Welterweight

Dhiego Lima vs Jesse Taylor

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dhiego Lima
Jesse Taylor
50% 50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lima: 4 sig / 0 TD · Taylor: 21 sig / 2 TD
Dhiego Lima
Jesse Taylor
27
Sig strikes landed
33
56
Sig strikes attempted
64
39
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
96s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Dhiego Lima

17-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner

Jesse Taylor

"JT Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35