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Michael Johnson vs Justin Gaethje

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Justin Gaethje
19% 81%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
L1
Current streak
—
16
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 91 sig / 1 TD · Gaethje: 104 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Justin Gaethje
44
Sig strikes landed
50
113
Sig strikes attempted
107
55
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Michael Johnson

"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
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L UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
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L UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
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Blue corner

Justin Gaethje

"The Highlight"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29