Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington vs Juliana Lima
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Juliana Lima
72%
28%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 5"
66"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
16-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pennington: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Lima: 6 sig / 1 TD
Tecia Pennington
Juliana Lima
45
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
111
84
Total strikes landed
76
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
253s
Control time
190s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Juliana Lima
"Ju Thai"
10-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—