Prelims2
Featherweight
Gray Maynard vs Teruto Ishihara
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Teruto Ishihara
37%
63%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
13-8-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-8-2
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maynard: 16 sig / 11 TD ·
Ishihara: 8 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
Teruto Ishihara
22
Sig strikes landed
42
64
Sig strikes attempted
83
34
Total strikes landed
47
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.70
221s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gray Maynard
13-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
L1
Teruto Ishihara
"Yashabo"
10-8-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—