Main
Light Heavyweight
Jordan Johnson vs Marcel Fortuna
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Johnson
Marcel Fortuna
77%
23%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
11-0
Career record
Δ 23 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 42 sig / 2 TD ·
Fortuna: 53 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Johnson
Marcel Fortuna
23
Sig strikes landed
18
59
Sig strikes attempted
42
56
Total strikes landed
34
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jordan Johnson
11-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcel Fortuna
10-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—