Main
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Elias Theodorou
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Elias Theodorou
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
22-13
Career record
Δ 22 pp
17-3
W1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Theodorou: 34 sig / 3 TD
Brad Tavares
Elias Theodorou
49
Sig strikes landed
47
107
Sig strikes attempted
114
56
Total strikes landed
67
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
246s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W2
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—