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Jared Cannonier vs Nick Roehrick

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Nick Roehrick
59% 41%
Why
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cannonier: 84 sig / 1 TD · Roehrick: 28 sig / 0 TD
Jared Cannonier
Nick Roehrick
33
Sig strikes landed
29
58
Sig strikes attempted
58
47
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jared Cannonier

"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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L UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner

Nick Roehrick

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30