Back to UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Brian Kelleher vs Marlon Vera

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum ·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Brian Kelleher
Marlon Vera
36% 64%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
25-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-12-1
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kelleher: 8 sig / 1 TD · Vera: 5 sig / 0 TD
Brian Kelleher
Marlon Vera
32
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
89
42
Total strikes landed
46
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brian Kelleher

"Boom"
25-16
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
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Blue corner
W2

Marlon Vera

"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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L UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
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