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Prelims1 Middleweight

Rafael Natal vs Eryk Anders

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum ·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Eryk Anders
59% 41%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
35
Age
Δ 4y
30
L2
Current streak
—
16
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Natal: 14 sig / 0 TD · Anders: 23 sig / 1 TD
Rafael Natal
Eryk Anders
46
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
92
66
Total strikes landed
52
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Rafael Natal

"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner

Eryk Anders

"Ya Boi"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30