Prelims1
Welterweight
Ryan LaFlare vs Alex Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ryan LaFlare
Alex Oliveira
49%
51%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
15-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
23-12-1
W2
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
LaFlare: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ryan LaFlare
Alex Oliveira
33
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
87
56
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
184s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ryan LaFlare
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
W3
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—