Back to UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Damian Grabowski vs Chase Sherman

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum ·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Damian Grabowski
Chase Sherman
61% 39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
37
Age
Δ 10y
28
20-6
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-12
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grabowski: 68 sig / 0 TD · Sherman: 111 sig / 0 TD
Damian Grabowski
Chase Sherman
48
Sig strikes landed
39
101
Sig strikes attempted
136
54
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Damian Grabowski

"The Polish Pitbull"
20-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
W1

Chase Sherman

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
17-12
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—