Prelims1
Heavyweight
Damian Grabowski vs Chase Sherman
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Damian Grabowski
Chase Sherman
61%
39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
37
Age
Δ 10y
28
20-6
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-12
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grabowski: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Sherman: 111 sig / 0 TD
Damian Grabowski
Chase Sherman
48
Sig strikes landed
39
101
Sig strikes attempted
136
54
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Damian Grabowski
"The Polish Pitbull"
20-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
W1
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
17-12
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—