Prelims2
Featherweight
Shane Burgos vs Godofredo Pepey
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Godofredo Pepey
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
16-3
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-6
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burgos: 102 sig / 1 TD ·
Pepey: 51 sig / 0 TD
Shane Burgos
Godofredo Pepey
36
Sig strikes landed
36
101
Sig strikes attempted
95
53
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
45s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Godofredo Pepey
14-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—