Prelims2
Lightweight
Frankie Perez vs Chris Wade
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Frankie Perez
Chris Wade
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
10-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-4
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perez: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Wade: 23 sig / 3 TD
Frankie Perez
Chris Wade
20
Sig strikes landed
26
38
Sig strikes attempted
40
35
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frankie Perez
10-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
Blue corner
L2
Chris Wade
12-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—