Main
Light Heavyweight
Patrick Cummins vs Gian Villante
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Patrick Cummins
Gian Villante
53%
47%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
11-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-15
W1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cummins: 86 sig / 1 TD ·
Villante: 72 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cummins
Gian Villante
55
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
101
63
Total strikes landed
64
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
166s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L1
Gian Villante
17-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—