Main
Bantamweight
Jimmie Rivera vs Thomas Almeida
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jimmie Rivera
Thomas Almeida
56%
44%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
24-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-5
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rivera: 70 sig / 2 TD ·
Almeida: 72 sig / 0 TD
Jimmie Rivera
Thomas Almeida
49
Sig strikes landed
51
118
Sig strikes attempted
135
64
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jimmie Rivera
"El Terror"
24-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
Blue corner
W1
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—