Prelims2
Lightweight
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Johnny Case
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Johnny Case
42%
58%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
18-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-7
W2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martin: 82 sig / 1 TD ·
Case: 92 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Johnny Case
31
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
96
47
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Anthony Rocco Martin
18-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
L1
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
22-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—