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Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Josh Stansbury vs Jeremy Kimball

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Stansbury
Jeremy Kimball
30% 70%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
26
4-9
Career record
Δ 32 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stansbury: 4 sig / 0 TD · Kimball: 17 sig / 0 TD
Josh Stansbury
Jeremy Kimball
26
Sig strikes landed
30
49
Sig strikes attempted
52
49
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
90s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Josh Stansbury

"The Sandman"
4-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
Blue corner
L1

Jeremy Kimball

15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena