Back to UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Prelims2 Featherweight

Jared Gordon vs Michel Quinones

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee ·Paycom Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Michel Quinones
73% 27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
29
Age
Δ 4y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gordon: 67 sig / 4 TD · Quinones: 16 sig / 0 TD
Jared Gordon
Michel Quinones
39
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
75
57
Total strikes landed
43
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jared Gordon

"Flash"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Michel Quinones

"El Capo"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33