Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Devin Powell
Darrell Horcher
50%
50%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Powell: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Horcher: 37 sig / 0 TD
Devin Powell
Darrell Horcher
40
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
83
53
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
118s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Devin Powell
9-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Darrell Horcher
"The Saint"
13-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—