Main
Light Heavyweight
Joachim Christensen vs Dominick Reyes
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joachim Christensen
Dominick Reyes
34%
66%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
39
Age
Δ 11y
28
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Christensen: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 13 sig / 0 TD
Joachim Christensen
Dominick Reyes
27
Sig strikes landed
42
61
Sig strikes attempted
81
39
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joachim Christensen
14-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28