Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Alex Garcia
68%
32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Means: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 32 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Alex Garcia
48
Sig strikes landed
33
95
Sig strikes attempted
78
56
Total strikes landed
46
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
26s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—