Main
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig vs Justine Kish
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Justine Kish
53%
47%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
15-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
8-4
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herrig: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Kish: 40 sig / 0 TD
Felice Herrig
Justine Kish
39
Sig strikes landed
43
105
Sig strikes attempted
92
76
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
225s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
15-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Justine Kish
8-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—