Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Dennis Siver
35%
65%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
16-15-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-12
L4
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Penn: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Siver: 103 sig / 0 TD
BJ Penn
Dennis Siver
45
Sig strikes landed
67
111
Sig strikes attempted
141
58
Total strikes landed
94
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
65s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
8 fights · 1-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
L2
Dennis Siver
23-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—