Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Maryna Moroz
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Maryna Moroz
68%
32%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
20-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Esparza: 40 sig / 6 TD ·
Moroz: 38 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Maryna Moroz
37
Sig strikes landed
37
97
Sig strikes attempted
101
70
Total strikes landed
60
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
289s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Maryna Moroz
"Iron Lady"
12-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—