Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Erik Koch
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
38-23
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-6
L2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 38 sig / 2 TD ·
Koch: 13 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Erik Koch
26
Sig strikes landed
32
61
Sig strikes attempted
82
54
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
299s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
Blue corner
W1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—