Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Johny Hendricks
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
36
Age
Δ 3y
34
21-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Boetsch: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Hendricks: 10 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Johny Hendricks
36
Sig strikes landed
39
74
Sig strikes attempted
75
50
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—