Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Kevin Lee
55%
45%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
21-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-8
W3
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chiesa: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 22 sig / 1 TD
Michael Chiesa
Kevin Lee
26
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
75
41
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner
W4
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—