Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Donald Cerrone
46%
54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
30-17
Career record
Δ 3 pp
36-18
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lawler: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 82 sig / 1 TD
Robbie Lawler
Donald Cerrone
68
Sig strikes landed
62
139
Sig strikes attempted
155
73
Total strikes landed
60
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
40s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
24 fights · 19-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—